McWilliams’ World

Okay, I can no longer be silent about this. Frankly I’m sick of the “PS3 Delay” articles littering my RSS feeds several times a day. I figured that I’d lend my take on the “why” the PS3 is delayed and what it means to everyone; gamers and the industry.

Before I start, I will be upfront with you that I am an Xbox fanboy. I owned a PS1 (among other consoles such as the Odyssey, Atari 5200, NES) but when I came time to upgrade, it was easy to see that the Xbox was the superior machine in power, features, and services. I’m no a game industry insider, I’m just an enthusiastic video game player who happens to believe Xbox is the best. These are just my thoughts and analysis.  That being said…

Why the PS3′s being delayed

If you follow PS3 news you get a few reasons for the delay:

• Blu-Ray issues
• Cost of manufacturing

But I feel there’s more to it than those common reports. My additional thoughts are:

• Cell chip
• On-Line service
• Console Features

I won’t get to heavy into each topic here, but here’s the skinny - as I see it;

• Blu-Ray: Sony seems to be having problems with getting their proprietary format to work right and be able to include it in the PS3 without breaking the bank. Sony’s forcing a Beta vs. VHS format war again and recent reports tend to suggest that industry support is starting to sway in the favor of HD-DVD. You see….open formats tend to work out better for everyone. Cost of the device is also a major concern according to some analysts. If some stand alone players are starting around the $1000 mark and HD-DVD players starting under $500… usually price wins.
• Cost of manufacturing: With all the proposed features of the PS3, it’s been suggested that the manufacturing costs will be very high for Sony. Typically consoles are sold at a loss but you want to keep that loss relatively low. Next comes retail cost of the base console which has been reported to be anywhere from $500 – $900. Can you see little Jimmy’s Mom or Dad plunking down $500+ for a game console? I don’t think so. Sure the hardcore gamer with some disposable income (or a large credit card) will get it, but the general public won’t be biting any time soon
• Cell chip: All 3 consoles this time around are tapping one company for the construction of their CPU; IBM. The approach to these chips are basically the same. IBM has very modular PowerPC chip technology, so they’re not creating these chips from scratch. The Cell chip is very complex compared to the Xbox 360′s (which is more of a general purpose design). I believe that Sony is having a hard time getting their heads around this complex chip. I’m not saying that the Cell is bad - ’cause it’s not. It’s just causing problems for developers to tap it’s strength and work around bugs other issues and thus delaying the PS3′s release.
• On-Line service: We all know Xbox Live is king and has set the bar for on-line play and services. Microsoft has had about 4 years to perfect this service. We all know Microsoft does software really well – so this is all a given. Sony doesn’t do software well – it’s not their focus. So how are they going to provide a unified on-line service for PS3 owners? It’s been reported that they have an Xbox Live killer in the works and will surpass Xbox Live in features and services. But that’s all that’s been heard. It’s all speculation. Officially, Sony has said that they cannot and will not offer a unified on-line service. That all could be bull, but I wouldn’t count on Sony coming out with anything that will rival Xbox 360′s level of integration within games and connection within the home network. It all remains to be seen and up until now, Sony’s hasn’t said bubkiss.
• Console features: What will this beast have included? Will it have a hard drive? Will it really have 7 controller ports (why)? Two 1gb ethernet ports (again why)? It’s also been reported that annalists don’t think Sony could fit all of this into the proposed console design. This also goes back to cost of manufacturing. Too much included. It’s all a macho play by Sony. I’ve said all along you’ll see Sony tout this and that but as time goes on…they’ll slowly whittle away at the feature set. I’ll believe it when I see it.

What the delay means to: Gamers

Gamers don’t like waiting. It’s a drag to see something that you’re looking forward to be continually delayed. At last year’s E3 Sony suggested a Spring ’06 PS3 release. I think that window’s been closed (according to the above points). In the meantime, Microsoft strikes first with the first and only next-gen console. I can imagine that most PS fans can wait 6mo…but 1 year or more after the latest and greatest already’s on the market? My thought is that these consoles are not that different and the extra time that Sony’s taking to get to market isn’t going to make the system any more powerful. It just shows that Sony’s bitten off more than they can chew and by the time they do get to market, Microsoft will be releasing 2nd generation 360 games and have a price drop in the wing to combat the PS3′s release.

Does that mean the PS3 will suck? No. It’ll just mean those that waited have waited a year longer than necessary because Sony couldn’t get it right in time.

The risk is if the PS3 comes out 1yr later than the Xbox 360 and it’s less stellar that what was promised by Sony and it’s only marginally better than the Xbox 360, I think I’d feel cheated (and a bit pissed) especially If I had to pay 30-40% more that what the Xbox 360 costs.

Oh the PS3 will eventually come out, but how long will gamers be patient with the constant delays? It makes you wonder if there’s something wrong with it. One thing’s for sure, it’ll give those waiting enough time to save their pennies or get their loans to buy the thing.

What the delay means to: Game Industry

This can’t bode well with game developers. If they’re starting to develop for the next-generation of game consoles, they’re only able to sell for one system right now – Xbox 360. The PS3 doesn’t even exist yet and I believe that they’re still having problems getting their games running right or optimized right on PS3 hardware.

There have been reports that the PS3 is hard to develop for and the Cell chip poses some very challenging development issues. Now, it can’t be that hard to develop for but I believe that Sony doesn’t have the best tools to get development off the ground. Technically the PS2 was a pain to develop for as well. Remember, Sony’s good at hardware…not software, so I believe that developers are somewhat on their own to get their code running right.

So here we have a game industry that’s in a slight state of limbo. The consumer knows the next generation is here so they’re either jumping on the Xbox 360 or waiting it out. I cannot believe that they’re still running around buying up the current systems; maybe late adopters or those on a budget. So consumers are waiting and that means softer sales. And if, as I said before the PS3 comes out later than sooner and differences are slim between it and it’s closest competition and at a price point that’s much highter…that doesn’t bode well at all for Sony or those developing games for it.  Developers have no choice but to develop, but with that does that mean? Less stellar titles? Do they cut corners to get to market ASAP?

There’s money to be made, but money’s only made on that which is being sold.

In Summary

Things are not looking too rosy for Sony and the PS3 – at least from where I stand. Little to no information has been released since E3 ’05 regarding the PS3. All that’s been reported is speculation. With little official word from Sony on the state of it’s new console (even at recent gaming events put on by Sony), reports of high console manufacturing and retail costs, issues with development, and unfortunate continuing bad press regarding delays in releasing the new console, this doesn’t look good for gamers or the game industry.

I do believe Sony will get to market at some time but it may be closer to 2007 before they do. But at what cost? Once again, if it’s no better than Xbox 360 (and I believe it’ll be less stellar than) and at a greater cost – that’s not a good thing. Gamers will fell cheated and the game industry will have no choice but to make games with what they got.

Do we all win? No, not everyone. I’m happy in the camp I’m in. How about you?

This entry was posted on Saturday, March 4th, 2006 at 11:03 am and is filed under PS3, Sony. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.